The PECOTA Projections are Unkind to the Orioles

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The projections are in from Baseball Prospectus for the 2017 season, and no surprise, the Baltimore Orioles are expect to finish last again.

The Baltimore Orioles were in the playoffs last season, being defeated by the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Game. Baltimore finished with an 89-73 record, finishing tied for second place (Toronto held the tiebreaker).

The Orioles have made moves during this offseason to bolster their lineup and clear some of the excess starting pitching. Outfielder Seth Smith was added by trading starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo to assist the Orioles in right field. He is also a left-handed hitter, which is something Baltimore needed desperately.

Designated hitter Mark Trumbo was brought back on a three-year/$37.5 million deal. Trumbo was the Major League home run leader (47). Baltimore also signed catcher Welington Castillo to a one-year/$6 million deal to replace free agent catcher Matt Wieters.

So how will the O’s project for the 2017 season?

American League, ranked by projected (remainder of season) 2017 record according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA

East Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
0 Boston Red Sox Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Jan 1
90 72 750 663 .272 .335 .431 .263 23.4
0 Tampa Bay Rays Hitters: Feb 3
Pitchers: Jan 26
84 78 724 691 .245 .310 .407 .260 27.0
0 New York Yankees Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Jan 19
82 80 739 733 .254 .322 .415 .258 26.6
0 Toronto Blue Jays Hitters: Jan 19
Pitchers: Feb 6
81 81 767 764 .258 .332 .432 .266 27.0
0 Baltimore Orioles Hitters: Feb 1
Pitchers: Jan 19
73 89 729 815 .256 .318 .433 .261 -4.3
Central Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
0 Cleveland Indians Hitters: Feb 3
Pitchers: Feb 3
92 70 797 686 .268 .337 .435 .265 19.3
0 Minnesota Twins Hitters: Feb 6
Pitchers: Feb 6
80 82 733 747 .251 .318 .422 .257 35.1
0 Detroit Tigers Hitters: Jan 19
Pitchers: Jan 1
78 84 743 771 .262 .322 .428 .260 -14.8
1 Chicago White Sox Hitters: Jan 19
Pitchers: Jan 1
76 86 701 755 .257 .309 .404 .254 -17.9
0 Kansas City Royals Hitters: Feb 3
Pitchers: Feb 6
71 91 681 779 .255 .309 .397 .250 2.3
West Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
0 Houston Astros Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Jan 1
94 68 769 646 .258 .322 .421 .268 31.8
0 Seattle Mariners Hitters: Jan 27
Pitchers: Jan 27
87 75 771 712 .258 .320 .420 .264 59.2
0 Texas Rangers Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Jan 1
84 78 765 730 .260 .328 .427 .264 18.6
0 Los Angeles Angels Hitters: Jan 26
Pitchers: Jan 1
78 84 718 749 .252 .318 .403 .261 15.0
0 Oakland Athletics Hitters: Jan 26
Pitchers: Jan 26
75 87 676 738 .243 .305 .391 .256 -5.3

National League, ranked by projected (remainder of season) 2017 record

East Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
1 New York Mets Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Feb 6
88 74 716 648 .242 .309 .405 .258 9.0
0 Washington Nationals Hitters: Jan 27
Pitchers: Jan 1
87 75 740 685 .251 .320 .407 .260 8.8
0 Miami Marlins Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Jan 19
78 84 685 718 .254 .312 .390 .256 -13.3
0 Atlanta Braves Hitters: Jan 26
Pitchers: Jan 19
77 85 664 705 .248 .310 .383 .251 21.5
0 Philadelphia Phillies Hitters: Jan 19
Pitchers: Jan 1
74 88 666 732 .244 .298 .387 .248 -28.2
Central Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
5 Chicago Cubs Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Feb 3
91 71 766 668 .249 .326 .418 .267 19.7
0 Pittsburgh Pirates Hitters: Feb 6
Pitchers: Jan 1
81 81 726 730 .262 .327 .408 .259 9.1
1 Milwaukee Brewers Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Feb 6
76 86 720 769 .241 .301 .400 .247 21.5
1 St. Louis Cardinals Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Jan 1
76 86 706 756 .253 .317 .411 .258 -19.6
0 Cincinnati Reds Hitters: Jan 27
Pitchers: Jan 27
74 88 729 803 .249 .310 .407 .250 6.9
West Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
2 Los Angeles Dodgers Hitters: Jan 27
Pitchers: Feb 6
99 63 762 595 .252 .323 .422 .267 41.0
0 San Francisco Giants Hitters: Feb 6
Pitchers: Jan 1
86 76 702 652 .258 .321 .400 .257 33.6
0 Arizona D-backs Hitters: Jan 19
Pitchers: Jan 1
78 84 707 740 .260 .317 .424 .251 -4.6
0 Colorado Rockies Hitters: Feb 3
Pitchers: Feb 3
76 86 733 789 .265 .316 .443 .249 4.1
1 San Diego Padres Hitters: Jan 26
Pitchers: Jan 26
69 93 659 774 .242 .297 .392 .244 28.8

 

Personally, these projections need to be taken with a grain of salt. Baltimore is constantly projected to finish low in the division, possibly due to starting pitching. However, with players that they have added during this offseason, I wouldn’t be to disheartened by the projections. Especially when the Orioles have been in the playoffs three out of the last five seasons.

About Kyle Andrews 90 Articles
Born in Norfolk, VA and raised Baltimore, MD. Currently a college student at the University of Baltimore and formerly the sports editor of McDaniel College. Also a former intern of PressBox Online in Baltimore.

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